A steep decline of 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August gross sales – the primary in 18 months – has didn’t dampen the spirits of tractor makers. Despite a poor monsoon, they’re anticipating gross sales to rebound within the months to return. Their confidence stems from increased reservoir ranges, authorities incentives for the agriculture (agri) sector, and a excessive minimal assist worth.
Cumulative tractor gross sales of the highest 5 tractor makers – Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tractors and Farm Equipment, John Deere India, Sonalika, and Escorts – have skidded 17 per cent to 47,630 models in August, from 57,727 models within the corresponding month a yr in the past.
The decline comes on the again of final yr’s excessive base and a wilting pent-up demand. After a high-paced development seen for over a decade, the speed of development is predicted to average to low single digits within the months forward, however tractor gross sales for the total yr will nonetheless contact a recent excessive in absolute quantity phrases, revealed CRISIL Research.
One of the most important markets for tractors globally, India offered 900,000 tractors in 2020-21.The analysis home expects it to the touch 930,000 by the top of 2021-22 (FY22).
Hemant Sikka, president-farm gear sector, M&M, mentioned a wise restoration within the general acreage of kharif crops, with most key crops posting acreage ranges nearer to final yr’s sown space, regardless of erratic monsoon in choose markets, bodes properly for the tractor market.
During the month, the tractor market chief noticed gross sales decline 15 per cent YoY to 19,997 models. But the corporate is assured about recouping volumes.
“With the festival period close at hand, which also coincides with the harvesting season, we are anticipating a robust demand,” mentioned Sikka.
Shruti Saboo, affiliate director, India Ratings & Research, expects tractor gross sales in FY22 to finish with a YoY development of 3-5 per cent.
“The tailwind for the sector remains strong. The growth may not be as high as it has been in the past month since pent-up demand has already been addressed. But we expect the overall market to grow since the enablers are in place,” mentioned Saboo.
Tractor gross sales in India have been advancing at a compound annual development charge of 10 per cent over 15-plus years. Growth henceforth is predicted to average, wrote Aditya Makharia, vice-president, fairness analysis, HDFC Securities, in a latest analysis report. He additionally attributes it to excessive penetration ranges.
Penetration charges for tractors have already risen to 45-50 tractors per 1,000 hectares (ha), which is increased than the world common of 30 tractors per 1,000 ha.
Shailendra Jagtap, managing director and nation supervisor at John Deere India, mentioned, “We are fairly optimistic in regards to the street forward and count on gross sales to rebound in September and October since farmers are eager to buy dependable and technologically superior merchandise.”
The native arm of the American tractor maker, the third largest by gross sales, offered 7,158 models within the home market, down 4 per cent YoY.
Good worth realisations of their crop and curtailment in lifestyle-related bills have augmented disposable incomes of farmers. This has augured properly for tractor and farm equipment gear, identified Jagtap.
After patchy rainfall in August, the southwest monsoon is predicted to carry out appreciably higher in September, with rains projected to be greater than 110 per cent of the lengthy interval common, however not adequate to recoup your entire seasonal deficiency, the India Meteorological Department mentioned final week.
Therefore, even when it rains closely in September, it gained’t cowl up for the total season shortfall, however it can enhance the prospects of the subsequent rabi crop and fill reservoirs.
Monsoon in August was nearly 24 per cent beneath regular, which was the sixth driest August since 1901. It got here on the again of a 7-per cent monsoon shortfall in July.
Tractor makers like Escorts, one of many worst affected in August with gross sales declining 27 per cent YoY to 4,920 models, are additionally drawing from excessive ranges of reservoirs and authorities assist.
“As we enter the festival season, we see farmer sentiment strong and enquiry level building up, driven by favourable macroeconomic factors, reasonably good water level of reservoirs, good pace of kharif sowing, and continued support by the government in the agri sector,” mentioned Escorts in an announcement.
Some components of the nation have confronted a rainfall deficit in July and August, and it stays to be seen how the monsoon behaves in September, added Escorts.